Global outlook


The European Union, Japan, China
and other developped countries


Black Creek International Equity Fund



“We think it is of vital importance to consider the prospects for growth in India, China and Europe, as each area by population is much larger than North America or, in the case of GDP, where Europe is the largest economic zone in the world.”

China is transitioning from an external export-led growth model to one of internal efficiency. In India, the opposite is true, and political and economic reforms seem to be accelerating growth from a very low base. India is approaching the level of GDP per capita where domestic demand can accelerate based on domestically generated savings and capital investment. Japan is stuck in a demographic trap. While we find investable companies exist in Japan, the outlook for domestic growth is very bleak.

In Europe, a devalued Euro and a replenished banking system are good for growth. This will lead to limited consumption growth due to a weak fiscal environment and aged demographic profile. We find many world-leading companies in Europe in which to invest. In fact, European companies are far more global than their American peers, judging by the revenue and profit mix of the businesses listed on the related markets.

Dynamic Equity Income Fund



“The world is definitely not seeing as much growth as it used to. I don’t think that is a bad thing. I just think we have to get used to that reality. But the United States seems to be doing better than everyone else. The country is not doing as well as it used to, but it seems to be doing a bit better than the rest of the world.”

RBC Global High Yield Bond Fund



A growth stimulus in the United States, which by some estimates is already at full employment, means we are likely to see the dollar bull maintained. This will be a risk for some emerging market countries’ private sectors, which have raised significant U.S. dollar debt – so again we have to take this country by country.

“Elections in France and Germany will be key this year. Markets will only be prepared to tolerate the ‘Brexit means Brexit’ non-answer from the U.K. for so long. Trying to negotiate an exit agreement with European Union members against a highly politicized backdrop is going to create plenty of volatility for the U.K. in 2017.”


Will commodity prices recover in 2017?

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